Predicting Implied Volatility in the Commodity Futures Options Markets

Intermediate Volatility Forecasts Using Implied Forward Volatility: The Performance of Selected Agricultural Commodity Options by

Valuing Real Options using Implied Binomial Trees and Commodity Futures Options

We show how to value a real option on a commodity using an implied binomial tree (IBT) that is calibrated using commodity futures options prices. Until now it has been assumed that spot options are required to be traded on the underlying asset in order to use an IBT; this requirement is, however, typically not met with commodities. We make two major contributions: First, by showing how to imple...

Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets

We consider portfolio optimization in futures markets. We model the entire futures price curve at once as a solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. The agents objective is to maximize her utility from the final wealth when investing in futures contracts. We study a class of futures price curve models which admit a finite-dimensional realization. Using this, we recast the portfol...

Bid - Ask Spreads in Commodity Futures Markets

Issues of recent interest and controversy regarding bid-ask spreads in commodity futures markets are investigated. First we apply competing spread estimators to open outcry transactions data and compare resulting estimates to observed spreads. This enables market microstructure researchers, regulators, exchange officials, and traders the opportunity to evaluate the usefulness and accuracy of bi...

Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans

This paper sets up and estimates a continuous-time stochastic volatility model using panel data of soybean futures and options in an integrated time-series study. The model of commodity price dynamics is within the class of affine asset pricing models, and option prices are determined using a standard inversion of characteristic functions approach. Our modeling acknowledges that commodities exh...